Calculation method
Expected value is the probability-weighted outcome total. Spread remains visible because equal averages can create very different risk and player experiences.
Assumptions and limits
This is a tabletop design scenario using your inputs, not a prediction of player experience. Check your game???exact rules and edge cases before finalizing a design.
Related tools
Read average and spread together
Each outcome contributes value multiplied by probability. Probabilities must represent the same event set and sum to 100%; expected value is a long-run average, not a promise for one play.
Use the result in a design decision
Two choices can have the same expected value but very different best/worst outcomes. Use the spread and weighted rows to decide whether the game wants volatility, a safety floor, or a catch-up mechanism.