Game math

Expected Outcome / Expected Value Calculator

Compare tabletop outcome tables by value, probability, and spread.

Tabletop design inputs

Scenario
Outcome rows

Calculation method

Expected value is the probability-weighted outcome total. Spread remains visible because equal averages can create very different risk and player experiences.

Assumptions and limits

This is a tabletop design scenario using your inputs, not a prediction of player experience. Check your game???exact rules and edge cases before finalizing a design.

Related tools

Read average and spread together

Each outcome contributes value multiplied by probability. Probabilities must represent the same event set and sum to 100%; expected value is a long-run average, not a promise for one play.

Use the result in a design decision

Two choices can have the same expected value but very different best/worst outcomes. Use the spread and weighted rows to decide whether the game wants volatility, a safety floor, or a catch-up mechanism.