Game math

Opening Hand Probability Calculator

Compare key-card access in a deck-building opening hand.

Tabletop design inputs

Scenario

Calculation method

This focuses on opening access to key cards. Full redraw once means the whole hand is returned before one independent redraw; it is not a game-specific mulligan engine.

Assumptions and limits

This is a tabletop design scenario using your inputs, not a prediction of player experience. Check your game???exact rules and edge cases before finalizing a design.

Related tools

Model the first decision players see

Deck size, target copies, and opening hand size produce the chance of seeing at least one target before any optional mulligan or draw rule. Add those rules only if the calculator explicitly models them.

Use the result in a design decision

Compare the chance for a key starter at different copy counts before adding redundancy. A low opening probability can be intentional, but it should match the game???stated pace and recovery tools.